Russian stocks to fall on trade war woes, low oil price

MOSCOW, Aug 2 (PRIME) -- The Russian stocks are likely to contract on Friday morning as the market will price in U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to impose new duties on Chinese imports, while relatively low oil prices will not provide any support, analysts said.

“Today, the RTS Index is likely to deepen its downward correction under the influence of external factors. U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce new duties on U.S. $300 billion of Chinese imports. The duty will stand at 10% with a possibility to grow to 25% later,” investment company Olma’s senior analyst Anton Startsev said.

The global markets did not expect this return to the trade war and players fled from risky assets, which resulted in contraction of the U.S. treasuries yield, higher gold prices, and decreases on all stock markets, Startsev said.

Mikhail Poddubsky, senior analyst at Promsvyazbank, said that aggravation of the trade war reminded global traders that the conflict may slow down the international economy, hurting purchases on stock markets.

“A rapid worsening of the investor mood on international markets and a significant contraction of oil prices prompted us to expect the MOEX Russia Index to fall to a 2,650–2,700 range. Under the current conditions, the impact of the external factors is the critical driver for the Russian market,” Poddubsky said.

The trade war rhetoric pushed the Brent oil price down 6.99% to U.S. $60.5 per barrel on Thursday.

Investment company Solid also said in a research note that the background for the Russian market was negative as the Asian floors were deeply in the red following the U.S. stock indices and Thursday’s fall in oil prices.

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